DFS Preview: Week 3 Finals Magpies v Giants

GAME

Collingwood v GWS Giants (MCG)

Saturday 4:35pm (AEST)

WEATHER

🌦 11-23 Showers developing. Windy (0.4-4mm 80% Chance of Rain)

Week 3 Finals Weather Forecast

DFS Projections Week 3 Finals: Magpies v Giants

Taylor Adams 3.jpg
Taylor Adams has averaged 101.0pts in his last 3 games against GWS

INJURIES

COLLINGWOOD

Jordan DeGoey (Hamstring) Out
Levi Greenwood (Knee) Out)

GWS GIANTS

Lachie Whitfield (Appendicitis) Out
Toby Greene (Suspended) Out
Stephen Coniglio (Knee) Out

 

BETTING

Collingwood $1.28 -22.5
GWS Giants $3.80
Total Match Points: 145.5

Bet Lab: Week 3 Finals Markets

Article by @aflratingsPete

 

GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY

GWS will be without two key players for the Saturday Preliminary Final, Lachie Whitfield (Disposal Ave: 27.8) & Toby Greene (Disposal Ave: 23.4) will both miss.

As a result of the GWS crucial omissions Collingwood are currently -22.5 favourites, the Magpies are a heavy disposal team & if the current betting line plays out a team stack with the majority of Collingwood players will likely be optimal.

The price tags for Brodie Grundy on Saturday are at the top end, he will likely need to be jammed in considering the more than favourable match-up against Shane Mumford. It is still worthwhile having a sprinkling of Mumford shares if your are multi entering GPP’s, this will allow an additional high disposal option to be rostered with the added bonus of creating unique line-ups.

Taylor Adams has been solid for the Magpies averaging 106.7pts from his last 6 games, keep in mind the potential for Matt deBoer to run with him on Saturday.

The Giants rotated just 5 players through CBA’s (Centre Bounce Attendances) last week, with the omission of Greene there will be at least 1 player that will see an increase on Saturday.

Zac Williams did see an increase in midfield usage earlier this year when the Giants were thin for options due to injuries, keep in mind also the omission of Whitfield & what that could do to the Giants backline if Williams increased his midfield usage. There are plenty of opportunities to take advantage of here.

Jeremy Cameron will likely be a play in a Giants win scenario & probably a fade in a losing scenario, he averaged 99.8pts in winning games & 69.1pts in losing games in the 2019 H&A season.

2019 Win Percentage vs Top 8

Collingwood 66.7% (Rank 1)
GWS Giants 54.5% (Rank 4)

Article by @aflratingsPete

Josh Kelly 3.jpg
Josh Kelly has scored 100pts or ore in 75.0% of games in 2019

DFS Projections Week 3 Finals: Magpies v Giants

 

TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

COLLINGWOOD

The Magpies conceded an average of 72.8pts in the H&A season (Rank 2).

The Magpies averaged 8.0 Disposals per Inside 50 in the H&A season (Rank 18), they recorded 8.9 Disposals per Inside 50 in the Qualifying Final against Geelong.

The Magpies were +8.2 in contested Possession Differential in the H&A season (Rank 3), the Magpies were -21 in the Qualifying Final against Geelong.

The Magpies were the No. 1 ranked team averaging 405.2 Disposals in the H&A season.

GWS GIANTS

The Giants conceded an average of 349.6 Disposals in the H&A season (Rank 1).

The Giants were +9.2 in contested Possession Differential in the H&A season (Rank 3).

The Giants are averaging 105.5pts in winning games & 59.9pts in losing games this season.

The Giants are averaging 7.6 Disposals per Inside 50 this season, they have averaged 7.6 at the MCG this season (3 Games).

 

DFS Projections Week 3 Finals: Magpies v Giants

 

FINALS CENTRE BOUNCE ATTENDANCES

COLLINGWOOD (vs Geelong)

19 Scott Pendlebury
15 Adam Treloar
14 Rupert Wills
12 Taylor Adams

GWS GIANTS (vs Brisbane)

19 Jacob Hopper
17 Josh Kelly, Matt de Boer, Tim Taranto
8 Toby Greene

FINALS KICK-INS

COLLINGWOOD (vs Geelong)

4 Brayden Maynard
2 Jeremy Howe
1 Chris Mayne, Darcy Moore, Jack Crisp

GWS GIANTS (vs Brisbane)

8 Aidan Corr
4 Heath Shaw
2 Zac Williams

 

LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES

COLLINGWOOD

181 Brodie Grundy
111 Adam Treloar
111 Taylor Adams
109 Scott Pendlebury
106 Steele Sidebottom

GWS GIANTS

145 Tim Taranto
122 Zach Williams
115 Toby Greene
115 Jeremy Cameron
109 Lachie Whitfield

Round 18, Giants Stadium 2019

Article by @aflratingsPete

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