GAME
Richmond v GWS Giants (MCG)
Saturday 2:30pm (AEST)
WEATHER
🌤 7-16 Partly cloudy
2019 Grand Final Weather Forecast
DFS Projections Grand Final: Tigers v Giants
INJURIES
RICHMOND
Jack Graham (Shoulder) Out
Nathan Broad (Concussion) Available
GWS GIANTS
Phil Davis (Calf/Shoulder) Questionable
Stephen Coniglio (Knee) Out
BETTING
Richmond $1.41 -17.5
GWS Giants $3.05
Total Match Points: 154.5
Bet Lab: 2019 Grand Final Markets
Article by @aflratingsPete
GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY
Richmond are -17.5 favourites heading into the 2019 Grand Final but weight of numbers may still favour GWS in a Tigers win, the Giants game style will be suited to expected dry conditions at the MCG which could result in some big numbers regardless of the result.
Ruck ownership will be interesting, Shane Mumford will be running solo Ruck for the Giants but could spend time off the ground during in-play situations which could limit his score along with the likelihood he will concede a decent amount of Free Kicks. Since returning Toby Nankervis has been a poor option at the Ruck position, he has averaged 41.5pts in two Finals this year. Ivan Soldo may be the preferred & safe option for many to select at Ruck, he has averaged 75.5pts in his last 4 games.
Matt deBoer is expected to shadow Dustin Martin in the midfield which will be no surprise to anyone, the ownership levels for Martin will likely be lower as a result.
Trent Cotchin attended 17 Centre Bounces (Richmond Rank: 3) last week against the Cats, he has not scored 100pts in a game this season but there should be no holding back on Saturday.
Toby Greene will likely be given an opportunity in the midfield against the Tigers at some stage, Zac Williams recorded 12 CBA’s (Centre Bounce Attendances) last week against the Magpies with the absence of Greene.
Josh Kelly recorded just 5 CBA’s last week, expect those numbers to increase against the Tigers on Saturday. Kelly has scored 120pts or more in 41.2% of games this season.
2019 Win Percentage vs Top 8
Richmond 63.6%
GWS Giants 58.3%
Article by @aflratingsPete
DFS Projections Grand Final: Tigers v Giants
TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES
RICHMOND
The Tigers recorded a -7.8 Contested Possession Differential in the 2019 H&A season (Rank 16), they are -16.5 in both Finals this year.
The Tigers recorded an average of +6.5 Inside 50 Differential in the 2019 H&A season (Rank 3), they have averaged -3.0 in both Finals this year.
The Tigers conceded an average of 20.2 Scoring Shots in the 2019 H&A season (Rank 1), they have conceded an average of 23.0 Scoring Shots in both Finals this year.
The Tigers are averaging 369.7 Disposals at the MCG this year (Season Ave: 370.8).
GWS GIANTS
The Giants conceded an average of 349.6 Disposals in the 2019 H&A season (Rank 1), they have conceded an average of 328.3 Disposals in three Finals this year.
The Giants have conceded an average of 6.8 Disposals Per Inside 50 in the 2019 H&A season (Rank 17), they have conceded an average of 6.8 in three Finals this year.
The Giants averaged 1.73 Points Per Inside 50 in the 2019 H&A season (Rank Eq. 1).
The Giants are averaging 364.0 Disposals at the MCG this year (Season Ave: 383.9).
FINALS CENTRE BOUNCE ATTENDANCES
RICHMOND (vs Geelong)
22 Shane Edwards
18 Dion Prestia
17 Trent Cotchin
10 Dustin Martin
3 Jack Graham
1 Josh Caddy, Daniel Rioli
GWS GIANTS (vs Collingwood)
16 Matt de Boer
13 Jacob Hopper
12 Zac Williams
11 Tim Taranto
5 Josh Kelly
FINALS KICK-INS
RICHMOND (vs Geelong)
6 Jayden Short
3 Nick Vlastuin
2 Bachar Houli
1 Dylan Grimes
GWS GIANTS (vs Collingwood)
6 Aidan Corr
3 Heath Shaw
FINALS CENTRE BOUNCE RUCK SEQUENCE
RICHMOND (vs Geelong)
Q1
SOLDO
SOLDO
NANKERVIS
NANKERVIS
NANKERVIS
NANKERVIS
SOLDO
NANKERVIS
Q2
NANKERVIS
NANKERVIS
NANKERVIS
SOLDO
SOLDO
Q3
SOLDO
SOLDO
SOLDO
SOLDO
SOLDO
NANKERVIS
Q4
SOLDO
NANKERVIS
NANKERVIS
SOLDO
NANKERVIS
GWS GIANTS (vs Collingwood)
Q1
MUMFORD
MUMFORD
KEEFFE
MUMFORD
Q2
MUMFORD
MUMFORD
MUMFORD
Q3
MUMFORD
MUMFORD
MUMFORD
TOMLINSON
MUMFORD
MUMFORD
Q4
MUMFORD
MUMFORD
MUMFORD
MUMFORD
TOMLINSON
MUMFORD
DFS Projections Grand Final: Tigers v Giants
LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES
RICHMOND
115 Shai Bolton
113 Bachar Houli
104 Brandon Ellis
95 Trent Cotchin
95 Kane Lambert
GWS GIANTS
144 Toby Greene
117 Tim Taranto
117 Lachie Whitfield
102 Jacob Hopper
101 Nick Haynes
2019 Round 17, MCG
Article by @aflratingsPete
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