Strategy plays a significant role in contending for an overall AFL Fantasy title, one of the underrated pieces of the puzzle is budgeting for an initial squad maximising value as well as recognising the fluctuation in salaries once the season starts.
Not all players will hold or improve on their starting Round 1 salary, in fact at times a fair amount of high priced players will fail in the early rounds. This creates a dual problem of a decrease in salary but will also allow your opponents to trade in your premium player once they are close to bottoming out in price. Â
Competitive fantasy coaches will target your ‘fallen premium’ which will create an ownership spike, last year Zach Merrett scored 50pts in Round 1 averaging 81.3pts over his opening 3 games. By Round 8 Merrett was owned by 59% of the Top 100 ranked players.
Being able to select players that will at a minimum hold their salary in the early rounds does make it increasingly difficult for other coaches to obtain your premium scorer, a re-structure by your opponents may also be required if one of those players is consistently hitting high ceiling games. Â
In 2019 Lachie Whitfield averaged 134.7pts from his opening 3 games, many coaches including the overall winner last year were forced to change direction & trade him in.
AFL Fantasy: 2019 Overall Top 10 – Midfield Ownership & Salary Spend
Of the 34 players last year priced at an average of 100pts or more a total of 11 players held or increased on their starting average over the opening 3 rounds (32.3%), only 7 of those 11 players over the H&A season averaged more than their Round 1 starting salary.
While many fantasy coaches will have a narrow focus on a Round 1 team build, allow yourself to project possible early season salary adjustments through role changes, strength of fixture, player health and increasing AFL experience.
Remember, we are playing salary game.
Article by @aflratingsPete
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2019 AFL Fantasy Differentials Rounds 1-3
(Sideways view on your device)
| PLAYER | R1 SALARY | R1 | R2 | R3 | AVE | R1 AVE | R1-3 DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell, T | $938,000 | 129.2 | |||||
| Macrae, J | $890,000 | 107 | 124 | 132 | 121.0 | 122.6 | -1.6 |
| Grundy, B | $871,000 | 84 | 111 | 122 | 105.7 | 120.0 | -14.3 |
| Gawn, M | $808,000 | 68 | 113 | 107 | 96.0 | 111.3 | -15.3 |
| Gaff, A | $803,000 | 97 | 97.0 | 110.6 | -13.6 | ||
| Coniglio, S | $801,000 | 161 | 50 | 108 | 106.3 | 110.3 | -4.0 |
| Cripps, P | $793,000 | 101 | 114 | 121 | 112.0 | 109.2 | 2.8 |
| Oliver, C | $792,000 | 73 | 130 | 82 | 95.0 | 109.1 | -14.1 |
| Treloar, A | $787,000 | 125 | 152 | 98 | 125.0 | 108.4 | 16.6 |
| Kelly, J | $787,000 | 100 | 100.0 | 108.4 | -8.4 | ||
| Laird, R | $782,000 | 103 | 83 | 84 | 90.0 | 107.7 | -17.7 |
| Ross, S | $779,000 | 82 | 85 | 64 | 77.0 | 107.3 | -30.3 |
| Yeo, E | $775,000 | 91 | 73 | 71 | 78.3 | 106.7 | -28.4 |
| Smith, D | $774,000 | 93 | 86 | 101 | 93.3 | 106.6 | -13.3 |
| Dangerfield, P | $771,000 | 103 | 134 | 132 | 123.0 | 106.2 | 16.8 |
| Beams, D | $768,000 | 90 | 128 | 86 | 101.3 | 105.8 | -4.5 |
| Hunter, L | $765,000 | 112 | 123 | 94 | 109.7 | 105.4 | 4.3 |
| Brayshaw, A | $763,000 | 100 | 117 | 129 | 115.3 | 105.1 | 10.2 |
| Crouch, M | $761,000 | 132 | 101 | 101 | 111.3 | 104.8 | 6.5 |
| Ablett, G | $754,000 | 93 | 81 | 69 | 81.0 | 103.9 | -22.9 |
| Gibbs, B | $753,000 | 79 | 79 | 102 | 86.7 | 103.7 | -17.1 |
| Sidebottom, S | $750,000 | 84 | 96 | 107 | 95.7 | 103.3 | -7.6 |
| Fyfe, N | $741,000 | 103 | 119 | 78 | 100.0 | 102.1 | -2.1 |
| Westhoff, J | $740,000 | 120 | 65 | 55 | 80.0 | 101.9 | -21.9 |
| Duncan, M | $739,000 | 95 | 108 | 103 | 102.0 | 101.8 | 0.2 |
| Pendlebury, S | $738,000 | 90 | 108 | 79 | 92.3 | 101.7 | -9.3 |
| Heppell, D | $738,000 | 107 | 94 | 114 | 105.0 | 101.7 | 3.3 |
| Lloyd, J | $738,000 | 126 | 123 | 120 | 123.0 | 101.7 | 21.3 |
| Merrett, Z | $736,000 | 50 | 99 | 95 | 81.3 | 101.4 | -20.0 |
| Martin, S | $735,000 | 64 | 83 | 80 | 75.7 | 101.2 | -25.6 |
| Selwood, J | $732,000 | 100 | 92 | 62 | 84.7 | 100.8 | -16.2 |
| Curnow, E | $728,000 | 113 | 46 | 94 | 84.3 | 100.3 | -15.9 |
| Neale, L | $727,000 | 91 | 146 | 135 | 124.0 | 100.1 | 23.9 |
| Whitfield, L | $726,000 | 109 | 133 | 162 | 134.7 | 100.0 | 34.7 |
2019 AFL Fantasy Differentials H&A Season
(Sideways view on your device)
| PLAYER | R1 SALARY | R1-3 AVE | R1-3 DIFF | H&A AVE | H&A DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell, T | $938,000 | ||||
| Macrae, J | $890,000 | 121.0 | -1.6 | 115.6 | -7.0 |
| Grundy, B | $871,000 | 105.7 | -14.3 | 122.0 | 2.0 |
| Gawn, M | $808,000 | 96.0 | -15.3 | 111.3 | 0.0 |
| Gaff, A | $803,000 | 97.0 | -13.6 | 111.0 | 0.4 |
| Coniglio, S | $801,000 | 106.3 | -4.0 | 103.7 | -6.6 |
| Cripps, P | $793,000 | 112.0 | 2.8 | 101.4 | -7.8 |
| Oliver, C | $792,000 | 95.0 | -14.1 | 105.9 | -3.2 |
| Treloar, A | $787,000 | 125.0 | 16.6 | 113.3 | 4.9 |
| Kelly, J | $787,000 | 100.0 | -8.4 | 116.1 | 7.7 |
| Laird, R | $782,000 | 90.0 | -17.7 | 96.9 | -10.8 |
| Ross, S | $779,000 | 77.0 | -30.3 | 94.3 | -13.0 |
| Yeo, E | $775,000 | 78.3 | -28.4 | 102.7 | -4.0 |
| Smith, D | $774,000 | 93.3 | -13.3 | 79.4 | -27.2 |
| Dangerfield, P | $771,000 | 123.0 | 16.8 | 107.5 | 1.3 |
| Beams, D | $768,000 | 101.3 | -4.5 | 88.7 | -17.1 |
| Hunter, L | $765,000 | 109.7 | 4.3 | 98.6 | -6.8 |
| Brayshaw, A | $763,000 | 115.3 | 10.2 | 87.9 | -17.2 |
| Crouch, M | $761,000 | 111.3 | 6.5 | 106.2 | 1.4 |
| Ablett, G | $754,000 | 81.0 | -22.9 | 88.7 | -15.2 |
| Gibbs, B | $753,000 | 86.7 | -17.1 | 80.8 | -22.9 |
| Sidebottom, S | $750,000 | 95.7 | -7.6 | 98.5 | -4.8 |
| Fyfe, N | $741,000 | 100.0 | -2.1 | 105.0 | 2.9 |
| Westhoff, J | $740,000 | 80.0 | -21.9 | 77.3 | -24.6 |
| Duncan, M | $739,000 | 102.0 | 0.2 | 105.6 | 3.8 |
| Pendlebury, S | $738,000 | 92.3 | -9.3 | 103.6 | 1.9 |
| Heppell, D | $738,000 | 105.0 | 3.3 | 93.7 | -8.0 |
| Lloyd, J | $738,000 | 123.0 | 21.3 | 106.9 | 5.2 |
| Merrett, Z | $736,000 | 81.3 | -20.0 | 108.2 | 6.8 |
| Martin, S | $735,000 | 75.7 | -25.6 | 84.8 | -16.4 |
| Selwood, J | $732,000 | 84.7 | -16.2 | 78.7 | -22.1 |
| Curnow, E | $728,000 | 84.3 | -15.9 | 89.9 | -10.4 |
| Neale, L | $727,000 | 124.0 | 23.9 | 104.7 | 4.6 |
| Whitfield, L | $726,000 | 134.7 | 34.7 | 113.8 | 13.8 |
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