Finding an edge against the field throughout an AFL Fantasy season for those interested in overall ranking may seem to be difficult, looking back at the midfield ownership & salary spend for the 2019 Top 10 can provide some groundwork for your 2020 roster construction.
Three players were 100% owned in the midfield at Round 1 last season by the overall Top 10, they were Brad Crouch $524K, Sam Walsh $270K & Charlie Constable $170K.
Brad Crouch ($524K, priced at 72 Ave) was significantly under priced compared to his expected average, he was heavily discounted after missing the entire 2018 season due to injury. The midfield usage for Brad Crouch at Adelaide was secure, after completing a full pre-season there was little doubt he would be one of the better value picks of the season.
The role for Sam Walsh ($270K, priced at 37 Ave) was expected to produce a significant average compared to his starting salary, the 2018 No.1 pick was AFL ready & his numbers throughout the pre-season series backed up the confidence spending high. Walsh recorded 28 & 23 Disposals in 2 pre-season games, his role in the Carlton developing midfield was secure enough to justify a Round 1 selection.
Many were waiting patiently for Charlie Constable ($170K, priced at 23 Ave) to debut for Geelong, his numbers in the VFL suggested he could easily surpass value at his Round 1 starting salary. There was a little risk Constable could fall out of favour with coach Chris Scott but there was very little downside after being selected at Round 1, the ownership was going to be high but ignoring such value would have been quite detrimental.
The average spend in the midfield by the 2019 overall Top 10 was $4.659Mil, this equated to 36.4% of the $12.8Mil salary cap used throughout the midfield including bench players.
|2019 FINISH||SALARY SPEND||% OF SALARY CAP|
Only 2 players above $700K were owned in at least 50% of Top 10 teams at Round 1 last season, they were Stephen Coniglio ($801K, priced at 110 Ave) & Angus Brayshaw ($763K, priced at 105 Ave).
As mentioned above Brad Crouch was selected in 100% of teams by the 2019 overall Top 10, other mid-priced players selected in at least 50% of teams were Tom Liberatore ($392K, priced at 54 Ave) & Dom Sheed ($539K, priced at 74 Ave).
A healthy amount of ownership was also spread across 3 other players above $600K, Tom Rockliff ($600K, priced at 83 Ave), Tim Taranto ($660K, priced at 91 Ave) & Rory Sloane ($653K, priced at 90 Ave).
*Starting Salary Classification: Premium $600K+, Mid-price $300-$599K, Rookie $170-$299K
Only 4 Midfielders were priced above $800K at Round 1 in 2019 (Top 10 Ownership)
Tom Mitchell ($938K) 0% Owned (Out for the season)
Jack Macrae ($890K) 0% Owned
Andrew Gaff ($803K) 0% Owned (Suspended until Round 3)
Stephen Coniglio (801K) 60% Owned
There were 29 midfielders priced between $700-799K, only 4 of those players were owned.
Patrick Cripps 40% Owned
Adam Treloar 20% Owned
Angus Brayshaw 50% Owned
Matt Crouch 10% Owned
There were 40 midfielders priced between $600-699K, only 5 of those players were owned.
Jack Steele 10% Owned
Dustin Martin 30% Owned
Tim Taranto 60% Owned
Rory Sloane 50% Owned
Tom Rockliff 70% Owned
There were 4 players selected between $300-599K.
Dom Sheed 50% Owned
Brad Crouch 100% Owned
Tom Liberatore 70% Owned
James Cousins 10% Owned
|PLAYER||2019 SALARY||TOP 10 OWNERSHIP|
The point of difference in lower type value options was limited compared to those players starting above $700K, due to the long term injury for Tom Mitchell ($938K) ownership at the higher end was moved on to Stephen Coniglio ($801K) with Jack Macrae ($890K) completely overlooked.
Ownership for players below $300K was high, identifying low priced players has become so refined that avoiding such options due to high ownership could be detrimental in the earlier weeks in the season when cash generation is so important.
Sam Walsh 100%
Bailey Scott 80%
Charlie Constable 100%
Michael Gibbons 60%
Tom Atkins 30%
Finding an edge based on ownership appears to be more relevant as the season starts.
2019 Overall winner (Craig) Round 8 Midfield:
Stephen Coniglio (Started Round 1)
Zach Merrett (Suffered a price drop due to a score of 50pts in Round 1)
Rory Sloane (Started Round 1)
Tom Rockliff (Started Round 1)
Patrick Dangerfield (Started Round 1, as a FWD)
Brad Crouch (Started Round 1)
Dayne Zorko (Averaged 88.3pts from his first 6 games)
Andrew Gaff (Did not start at Round 1 due to suspension, was the highest ranked player to score 100pts or more in 2019: 2019 Fantasy Ceiling Kings: AFL Top 20)
Bailey Scott (Last game was Round 5)
Dayne Zorko, Andrew Gaff & Zach Merrett were all traded in by Round 8, the Top 100 at this stage had Zorko at 1% owned, Gaff at 31% owned & Merrett at 59% owned. Sam Walsh was traded out at Round 8, he was 85% owned by the Top 100%.
*Top 100 ownership numbers provided by @ricontop
Targeting low owned players such as Zorko & Gaff provided an opportunity for Craig to overtake a large majority of highly ranked coaches, moving away from Sam Walsh did seem a little early but the high ownership made it a worthwhile move trying to find a unique type line-up.
Article by @aflratingsPete
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