2020 AFL DFS Week 1 Finals Preview: Power v Cats

GAME

Port Adelaide v Geelong (Adelaide Oval)

Thursday 7:40pm (AEST)

WEATHER

🌤 11-21 Partly cloudy

2020 AFL Weather Forecast: Week 1 Finals

INJURIES

PORT ADELAIDE

Ryan Burton (Quad) Available
Tom Clurey (Hamstring) Available
Mitch Georgiades (Hamstring) Test

GEELONG

Tom Atkins (Soreness) Available
Charlie Constable (Tongue) Available
Sam Simpson (Hamstring) Test
Rhys Stanley (Groin) Available

BETTING

Port Adelaide $1.72 -3.5
Geelong $2.10
Total Match Points: 115.5

2020 Bet Lab: Week 1 Finals Markets

Article by @aflratingsPete

GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY

Port Adelaide head into the opening final of the 2020 season as -3.5 favourites against Geelong, the Power were torched with a 60 point defeat by the Cats in Round 12 at Metricon Stadium (Note: Port Adelaide travelled on the same day as this game).

Tom Hawkins was the focal point for the Geelong ball movement in Round 12, he finished with 6 Goals. The Power were exposed out the back in defence when Geelong were able to move the ball quickly through the midfield.

Conditions are expected to be fine for Thursday night which does not rule out any key forward, however the constant double teaming of Charlie Dixon in Round 12 (Season low 25pts) will likely occur again so Port Adelaide will likely need to find a different more effective avenue to goal (Note: Charlie Dixon has kicked a total of just 1 goal in the 3 losses by Port Adelaide this season).

Ruck ownership for this game will be interesting, Scott Lycett has been the clear No.1 option for the Power in recent weeks but Peter Ladhams has shown a ceiling this season (Note: Of the 3 scores of 80pts or more this season by Ladhams, 2 of those games were without Scott Lycett).

Rhys Stanley is “available” to return as stated by Geelong coach Chris Scott on Monday, Esava Ratugolea did not play against Port Adelaide in Round 12. Mark Blicavs & Ratugolea have shared ruck duties the last 2 games for the Cats.

Port Adelaide have been steady at centre bounces for several weeks now, expect heavy usage for Travis Boak, Tom Rockliff & Ollie Wines with Sam Powell-Pepper & Robbie Gray to split the usage for the No.4 spot.

Geelong have spread out their centre bounces for the 2020 H&A season, however this could be slightly narrowed for the Finals. Expect Joel Selwood, Cam Guthrie & Patrick Dangerfield to be used at a heavy rate early with Jack Steven & Brandan Parfitt to be used at the No.4 spot. If Dangerfield is highly efficient when moved forward the Cats CBA’s may alter, pairing Dangerfield with Parfitt or Steven in this situation may provide a decent return in a Geelong high scoring game script.

2020 Win Percentage vs Top 8

Port Adelaide 57.1%
Geelong 57.1%

DFS Projections: Season 2020

TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

PORT ADELAIDE

The Power were ranked No.3 in the 2020 H&A Season averaging 310.9 Disposals per game, they recorded a season low 252 Disposals against the Cats in Round 12.

The Power averaged +10.0 Inside 50 Differential in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 1), they recorded a negative differential in all 3 losses.

The Power are 6-1 at the Adelaide Oval this season, they are 2-1 vs Top 8 teams at the same venue.

GEELONG

The Cats were ranked No.2 in the 2020 H&A Season averaging 311.7 Disposals per game, they are the No.1 ranked team conceding 268.5 Disposals per game (+43.2 Ave Disposal Differential, Rank 1).

A total of 3 Geelong players averaged 20 Disposals or more in the 2020 H&A season, they were Cam Guthrie (22.0), Sam Menegola (21.9) & Patrick Dangerfield (21.5).

The Cats averaged 72.5pts in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 1), they averaged 43.3pts in their 3 losses to Top 8 teams.

ROUND 18 CBA’S

PORT ADELAIDE

Travis Boak 80.0%
Ollie Wines 70.0%
Tom Rockliff 65.0%
Sam Powell-Pepper 35.0%
Robbie Gray 30.0%
Connor Rozee 20.0%

GEELONG

Joel Selwood 73.9%
Cam Guthrie 65.2%
Brandan Parfitt 56.5%
Jack Steven 56.5%
Patrick Dangerfield 30.4%
Mitch Duncan 17.4%

LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES

PORT ADELAIDE

Travis Boak 90pts
Dan Houston 72
Ollie Wines 68
Karl Amon 64
Scott Lycett 64

GEELONG

Tom Hawkins 123pts
Cam Guthrie 98
Patrick Dangerfield 95
Mitch Duncan 95
Gary Rohan 88

2020 Round 12, Metricon Stadium