2020 AFL DFS Week 3 Finals Preview: Power v Tigers

GAME

Port Adelaide v Richmond (Adelaide Oval)

Friday 7:50pm (AEDT)

WEATHER

🌦 13-25 Possible shower (0-1mm 40% Chance of Rain)

2020 AFL Weather Forecast: Week 3 Finals

KEY INJURIES

PORT ADELAIDE

Xavier Duursma (Concussion) Available
Todd Marshall (Shoulder) Available 

RICHMOND

Ivan Soldo (ACL) OUT

BETTING

Port Adelaide $1.80 -2.5
Richmond  $2.00
Total Match Points: 115.5

2020 Bet Lab: Week 3 Finals Markets

Article by @aflratingsPete

GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY

The opening Preliminary Final of the 2020 season will take on a very different look as far as final teams are concerned, both the Power & Tigers were missing several key players back in Round 11. 

The Tigers have opted to stick with Toby Nankervis as solo ruck, opposition rucks against the Tigers have been ranked in the top 2 opposing team fantasy scores over the last 4 games. 

Toby Nankervis did not play in Round 11 earlier this year, Peter Ladhams scored 90pts while Scott Lycett returning from injury scored 53pts against a Soldo/Chol ruck combo. 

After being dropped earlier this season Tom Rockliff has averaged 98.3pts from his 10 games since returning, Ollie Wines was used at a team high 94.1% of centre bounces against Geelong in the Qualifying Final & has averaged 86.8pts since the Power Bye in Round 15.

Travis Boak could be a sleeper with his contested game, his ownership may be lower than expected after averaging 73.5pts from his last 2 games. Boak was used at 58.8% of centre bounces against Geelong in the Qualifying Final, he will be fresh after an extended break. 

Port Adelaide play a high contested type game, a minimum 2 Power inside midfielders should be considered in a Power ‘win’ scenario roster build. 

As expected Richmond altered their centre bounce usage last week against St Kilda, Shai Bolton was used at just 4.8% while Jack Graham was at 14.3%. The usage for Dion Prestia (57.1%) & Shane Edwards (76.2%) increased while Trent Cotchin regressed to 57.1% after being used at 81.0% against Brisbane in a Qualifying Final loss. 

Dustin Martin has been used at an extremely high rate at centre bounces for some time now, the preference is that he moves forward in general play in an attempt to create a mismatch. Tom Jonas is expected to cover Martin when he roams forward, if that is the case he could be the 3rd key defensive spare assisting Trent McKenzie & Tom Clurey against Tom Lynch & Jack Riewoldt when Martin is not forward. 

Despite recording only 24 Inside 50s against Port Adelaide in Round 11 Richmond did score a whopping 3.0 Points Per Inside 50 (Season Ave: 1.42), the Power have been exposed by key forwards at times this season & should be considered when building a Richmond ‘win’ scenario roster build. 

Recency bias will play a factor in the Tom Lynch ownership this week, the fantasy output for Jack Riewoldt this season has been poor but he could be a decent pivot away from that Lynch ownership. 

2020 Win Percentage vs Top 8

Port Adelaide 62.5%
Richmond 66.7%

DFS Projections: Season 2020

TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

PORT ADELAIDE

The Power averaged 310.9 Disposals in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 3).

The Power averaged 69.7pts per game in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2).

The Power conceded an average of 51.1pts per game in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 1).

RICHMOND

The Tigers conceded an average of 51.4pts per game in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2).

The Tigers recorded an average of 113.1 Contested Possessions in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 16), the Tigers have averaged 127.5 in two finals this year.

The Tigers averaged 6.4 Disposals per Inside 50 in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2).

WEEK 1 FINALS CBA’S

PORT ADELAIDE

Ollie Wines 94.1%
Tom Rockliff 82.4%
Travis Boak 58.8%
Sam Powell-Pepper 47.1%
Robbie Gray 11.8%
Connor Rozee 5.9%

WEEK 2 FINALS CBA’S

RICHMOND

Dustin Martin 90.5%
Shane Edwards 76.2%
Trent Cotchin 57.1%
Dion Prestia 57.1%
Jack Graham 14.3%
Shai Bolton 4.8%

LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES

PORT ADELAIDE

Ollie Wines 124pts
Travis Boak 100
Peter Ladhams 90
Karl Amon 86
Tom Rockliff 82

RICHMOND

Daniel Rioli 76pts
Dustin Martin 75
Nick Vlastuin 72
Kamdyn McIntosh 69
Jack Ross 65

2020 Round 11, Adelaide Oval

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