GAME
West Coast v Essendon (OS)
Optus Stadium
Thursday 8:10pm (AEST)
WEATHER
☀ 3-17 Sunny
Week 1 Finals Weather Forecast
DFS Projections Week 1 Finals: Eagles v Bombers
INJURIES
WEST COAST
Shannon Hurn (Hamstring tightness) Named
ESSENDON
Michael Hurley (Shoulder) Named
Dyson Heppell (Foot) Named
2019 Injury Report: Week 1 Finals
BETTING
West Coast $1.21 -28.5
Essendon $4.50
Total Match Points 158.5
Bet Lab: Week 1 Finals Markets
Article by @aflratingsPete
GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY
West Coast will likely start just under a 5 goal favourite against Essendon in the opening Elimination Final, considering the large betting line ownership of forwards will likely be much higher for Eagles players.
Josh Kennedy was inaccurate the last time both of these teams met, he recorded just 3 Goals from 8 scoring shots for 70pts. Kennedy did take 8 Marks Inside 50 but wasted his opportunities, he was matched up against Michael Hurley early and completely outplayed him. Aaron Francis did not play in the Round 14 game, considering the shoulder concerns for Hurley I would be surprised if he is matched up against Kennedy again. Kennedy may be a decent play especially in a West Coast blowout scenario given his salary on both DS & MB, ownership will likely be high.
Mark Hutchings was isolated on Adam Saad as a defensive forward earlier in the season, this match-up is likely again considering the want for the Bombers to attack or run & gun from their own defensive half. The Hutchings to Saad match-up will likely be a green light for Zach Merrett & Dylan Shiel in the midfield for the Bombers, however Jack Redden or even Elliot Yeo may be used in a negating role if the Bombers are in a decent position during the game.
The return of Nic Naitanui does disrupt the Ruck opportunities for Tom Hickey, expect Naitanui to be on limited game time and also a decent chance to be rested late if the Eagles are well on top. Tom Bellchambers will have his hands full with both Naitanui & Hickey, Shaun McKernan should spend the majority of time forward but was well held back in Round 14. McKernan is quite mobile but is at a Ruck disadvantage against Naitanui & Hickey.
The Eagles will likely roll with Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey, Jack Redden, Dom Sheed & Andrew Gaff at centre bounces. The Bombers will likely send Zach Merrett, Dylan Shiel, Kyle Langford, Jake Stringer & Dyson Heppell in at centre bounces.
West Coast were +24 Inside 50 entries against the Bombers in Round 14 this season, if those numbers appear again on Thursday night then expect the Essendon defence to be under severe pressure again.
2019 Win Percentage vs Top 8
West Coast 52.0% (Rank Eq5)
Essendon 22.2% (Rank 13)
Article by @aflratingsPete
TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES
WEST COAST
The Eagles averaged 1.73 Points Per Inside 50 in the 2019 H&A season (Rank Eq 1).
The Eagles have an average contested Possession Differential of -8.0 over the last 5 weeks (Rank 16).
The Eagles have averaged 7.0 Disposals per Inside 50 entry over the last 5 weeks (Season Ave: 7.2).
The Eagles have an average Inside 50 Differential of +0.3 over the last 4 weeks (Season Ave: -2.1).
West Coast have not recorded 400 Disposals in a game this season (Season Ave Disposals: 352.9, Rank 16).
ESSENDON
The Bombers have conceded an average of 1744.0 AFL Fantasy points over the last 4 weeks (Rank 17).
The Bombers have an average contested Possession Differential of -24.0 over the last 5 weeks (Rank 18).
The Bombers have averaged 7.8 Disposals per Inside 50 entry over the last 5 weeks (Season Ave: 7.4).
The Bombers have an average Inside 50 Differential of -16.3 over the last 4 weeks (Season Ave: -3.7).
Essendon averaged 377.9 Disposals between Rounds 1-11 this season, they averaged 360.7 Disposals between Rounds 13-23.
By The Numbers: Points Per Inside 50 Round 23
ROUND 14 WC v ESS CENTRE BOUNCE ATTENDANCES
WEST COAST
22 Elliot Yeo
17 Jack Redden
16 Luke Shuey
13 Dom Sheed
10 Andrew Gaff
ESSENDON
22 Dylan Clarke
17 Dylan Shiel
13 Zach Merrett
11 Kyle Langford
6 Darcy Parish
4 Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Dyson Heppell
1 Orazio Fantasia
ROUND 14 WC v ESS KICK-INS
WEST COAST
3 Lewis Jetta
2 Shannon Hurn
ESSENDON
7 Conor McKenna
6 Adam Saad
2 Andrew McGrath, Michael Hurley
1 Dyson Heppell
DFS Projections Week 1 Finals: Eagles v Bombers
LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES
WEST COAST
132 Elliot Yeo
114 Dom Sheed
109 Jack Redden
103 Luke Shuey
92 Andrew Gaff
Key DNP – Nic Naitanui
ESSENDON
116 Cale Hooker
105 Zach Merrett
96 Darcy Parish
94 Dylan Shiel
94 Tom Bellchambers
Key DNP – Jake Stringer
Round 14, 2019 Optus Stadium. Game Start: 8:10pm (AEST)
Article by @aflratingsPete
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