GAME
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs (Gabba)
Saturday 4:40pm (AEST)
WEATHER
🌤 17-27 Partly cloudy
2020 AFL Weather Forecast: Week 1 Finals
INJURIES
ST KILDA
Josh Battle (Foot) Out
Zak Jones (Hamstring) AvailableÂ
Jack Lonie (Knee) Test
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Mitch Wallis (Shoulder) Available
Aaron Naughton (Cheekbone) Available
Matt Suckling (Hamstring) Test
Laitham Vandermeer (Hamstring) Test
BETTING
St Kilda $2.15Â
Western Bulldogs $1.71 -4.5
Total Match Points: 123.5
2020 Bet Lab: Week 1 Finals Markets
Article by @aflratingsPete
GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY
There has been a steady amount of money for the Bulldogs in betting markets all week, they’ll start favourite against the Saints barring any late injury news.Â
St Kilda blew the Bulldogs away by 39pts at Marvel Stadium when the season resumed in Round 2, the Bulldogs were quite under prepared after the long lay off.
The Bulldogs have improved dramatically since starting the season 0-2, they have averaged 321.4 Disposals from winning games recording fewer than 300 Disposals in just 2 of 10 wins.
The Bulldogs have had a very narrow group attending centre bounces this season, expect high usage for Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macare & Tom Liberatore.
Bailey Smith & Josh Dunkley will also feature at centre bounces, the usage at centre bounces for Dunkley has yet to return to the early season high levels prior to his ankle injury with Tom Liberatore claiming a spot in the middle of the ground assisting other Bulldogs midfielders.Â
Expect Saints coach Brett Ratten to activate at least a couple of lock down roles on Saturday, Jason Johannisen was heavily tagged by Jarryn Geary in Round 2 while it is a possibility Seb Ross could be sent to Marcus Bontempelli.
Caleb Daniel was also a tag target by the Dockers in Round 18 forcing Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge to move Daniel out of his defensive role.Â
If Bontempelli is shutdown then expect Jack Macrae, Bailey Smith & Josh Dunkley to be able to accumulate disposals, Jack Steele has been given a licence to hunt the ball for most of this season but don’t forget he is an effective tagging type when required.Â
It is unlikely Zak Jones & Dan Hannebery will attract any opposition attention, Jack Billings scored a season high 112pts in Round 2 against the Bulldogs.Â
With Zak Jones returning for the Saints Hunter Clark may be pushed back to a half-back type role, Steele & Ross should see the heaviest usage at centre bounces for the Saints with Jones next in line with Hannebery not far behind.Â
2020 Win Percentage vs Top 8
St Kilda 42.9%
Western Bulldogs 14.3%
DFS Projections: Season 2020
TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES
ST KILDA
The Saints averaged 68.2pts per game in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 4).
The Saints averaged 7.5 Disposals per Inside 50 between Rounds 1-14, they have averaged 6.4 from their last 3 games post Bye.Â
The Saints averaged 292.2 Disposals in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 11).
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bulldogs averaged 310.7 Disposals in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 4).Â
The Bulldogs recorded an average of +0.8 Inside 50 Differential between Rounds 1-14, they have averaged +14.0 from their last 3 games.Â
The Bulldogs conceded an average of 64.5pts per game between Rounds 1-14, they have conceded an average of 43.7pts from their last 3 games.Â
ROUND 18 CBA’S
ST KILDA
Jack Steele 94.7%
Seb Ross 94.7%
Hunter Clark 57.9%
Dan Hannebery 31.6%
Jack Sinclair 21.1%
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Jack Macrae 81.0%
Marcus Bontempelli 76.2%
Tom Liberatore 61.9%
Bailey Smith 57.1%
Josh Dunkley 23.8%
LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES
ST KILDA
Jack Billings 112pts
Zak Jones 108
Seb Ross 107
Jack Steele 102
Jade Gresham 92
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Josh Dunkley 108pts
Bailey Smith 93
Jack Macrae 65
Patrick Lipinski 64
Ed Richards 64
2020 Round 2, Marvel Stadium
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