2020 AFL DFS Week 2 Finals Preview: Tigers v Saints

GAME

Richmond v St Kilda (Metricon Stadium)

Friday 7:50pm (AEDT)

WEATHER

🌤 15-28 Partly cloudy

2020 AFL Weather Forecast: Week 2 Finals

INJURIES

RICHMOND

Tom Lynch (Hamstring) Available
Jack Higgins (Calf) Out 

ST KILDA

Josh Battle (Foot) Available
Jake Carlisle (Personal) Out
Ben Long (Suspension) Out
Paddy Ryder (Hamstring) Out 

BETTING

Richmond $1.28 -20.5 
St Kilda $3.75
Total Match Points: 121.5

2020 Bet Lab: Week 2 Finals Markets

Article by @aflratingsPete

GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY

After a narrow loss to Brisbane last week Richmond head into a Semi Final against St Kilda as strong favourites, the Saints defeated the Tigers in Round 4 at Marvel Stadium earlier this season by 26pts. 

Both teams have preferred a dual ruck set-up this season, Ivan Soldo has been sidelined for several weeks now with an ACL injury at Richmond while Paddy Ryder will miss the remainder of the 2020 season with a hamstring injury. 

The Tigers opted to play Mabior Chol last week against Brisbane & will likely roll with Nathan Broad as back-up on Friday night. Broad has minimally played that role this season, Noah Balta has previously been used as a back-up early in his AFL career. Regardless, Toby Nankervis will do the majority of the ruck work for the Tigers. 

Rowan Marshall will take on the majority of ruck work for the Saints, he has a genuine fantasy ceiling that is clearly noteworthy when playing the solo ruck role. Tim Membrey will be an option to provide support for Marshall. Max King has averaged 0.9 Hit Outs this season and may assist up forward at throw-ins. Josh Battle was used at ruck contests early in the year.

Expect high ownership for Marshall, playing both he & Nankervis on DS is an option. If both players separate & sit as a defensive mark option in general play then both can hit a ceiling type game. 

2020 Teams: Week 2 Finals

With Jake Aarts being omitted for the Tigers Shai Bolton likely moves more to a small-half forward type role, he was used at 28.6% of CBA’s against Brisbane last week. That move should increase the centre bounce usage for Dion Prestia, he should be better in his 2nd game back from injury. Prestia was used at 47.6% of CBA’s last week, expect the Tigers to narrow the centre bounce usage to Martin, Cotchin, Prestia Edwards & Graham against the Saints on Friday night. 

The Saints have run a narrow group of players in at centre bounces for most of the year, expect Steele, Jones, Ross & Hannebery to get most of the work against the Tigers. 

The game should be highly contested early, key forwards are in play for both teams. Tim Membrey is likely to provide a marking target moving all the way up to the wing at times, if the Tigers take control as betting markets suggest then Lynch or Riewoldt for the Tigers could hit the scoreboard in a Richmond blowout. 

2020 Win Percentage vs Top 8

Richmond 62.5%
St Kilda 50.0%

DFS Projections: Season 2020

TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

RICHMOND

The Tigers conceded an average of 37.6 Inside 50’s in the 2020 H&A season, they conceded 45 against the Lions in the Qualifying Final loss. 

The Tigers conceded an average of 305.0 Disposals in the 2020 H&A season, they conceded 264 Disposals against the Lions in their Qualifying Final.

The Tigers conceded an average of 51.4pts in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2), they conceded 69pts against the Lions in their Qualifying Final.

ST KILDA

The Saints averaged 7.3 Disposals Per Inside 50 in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 7), they recorded 8.1 against the Bulldogs in their Elimination Final. 

The Saints were +0.6 for Inside 50 Differential in the 2020 H&A season, they were -16 in their Elimination Final win against the Bulldogs. 

The Saints averaged 292.8 Disposals in the 2020 H&A season season, they recorded 285 Disposals against the Bulldogs in their Elimination Final. 

WEEK 1 FINALS CBA’S

RICHMOND

Dustin Martin 85.7%
Trent Cotchin 81.0%
Dion Prestia 47.6%
Shane Edwards 47.6%
Shai Bolton 28.6%
Jack Graham 9.5%

ST KILDA

Seb Ross 82.6%
Jack Steele 78.3%
Zak Jones 65.2%
Dan Hannebery 52.2%
Jack Sinclair 21.7%

LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES

RICHMOND

Toby Nankervis 118pts
Trent Cotchin 92
Shane Edwards 88
Dion Prestia 85
Bachar Houli 85

ST KILDA

Jack Steele 98pts
Rowan Marshall 89
Jack Billings 87
Bradley Hill 86
Tim Membrey 85

2020 Round 4, Marvel Stadium

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