2020 AFL DFS Grand Final Preview: Tigers v Cats

GRAND FINAL

Richmond v Geelong (Gabba)

Saturday 7:40pm (AEDT)

WEATHER

🌦 19-28 Possible shower late morning (0-2mm 40% Chance of Rain)

2020 AFL Weather Forecast: Grand Final

KEY INJURIES

RICHMOND

Jack Higgins (Calf) test
Ivan Soldo (ACL) Out

GEELONG

Jack Steven (Hamstring) Test

BETTING

Richmond $1.84 -2.5 
Geelong $2.05 
Total Match Points: 116.5 

2020 Bet Lab: Grand Final Markets

Article by @aflratingsPete

GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY

The Gabba is all set to host the 2020 AFL Grand Final, weather reports for Saturday night have fluctuated for most of the week & it is highly recommended to maintain a close watch for the latest updates in the final hours prior game time. 

The main positional question for the Grand Final is where Patrick Dangerfield will start, we know that his centre bounces have reduced significantly since the Geelong Round 15 Bye & hit a season low 15.0% last week against Brisbane.

If the Cats win enough ball through the middle of the ground then expect Dangerfield to spend a fair amount of time forward, this will provide an alternative target to Hawkins in the forward line & attempt to stretch the Richmond defence. 

Expect Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan & Cam Guthrie to be used at a high rate at centre bounces in a neutral or positive game script for the Cats, Brandan Parfitt & Patrick Dangerfield are likely to sweep up the remaining centre bounces. 

Nothing much should change from a Richmond point of view, the Tigers will back in their game plan & attempt to move the ball Inside forward 50 at an efficient rate. Richmond aren’t a high disposal team which directly impacts their fantasy output, there is the potential the Tigers win with minimal players hitting a ceiling type game. 

Last week Dustin Martin was used at 62.5% of centre bounces, that was his lowest usage rate since Round 4 this season (51.7%). Martin is a dual threat through the midfield & forward, with Tom Lynch &  Jack Riewoldt as key tall targets Martin could exploit the Geelong defence if that handover from midfield to forward is not set appropriately.

The decision at Ruck may prove to be decisive when building line-ups, recency bias may see higher ownership set on Toby Nankervis after his 106pts against Port Adelaide last week. 

In a low scoring game script expect half-back players to score well, any type of blowout could also see late junk time scores across defensive players running out the clock. 

The popular line-up build will likely be heavy on Geelong through the midfield, that could be optimal in both a Richmond or Geelong win. A dry game & key forwards remain an option despite strong defences, any type of weather and the fantasy scoring could be limited for those types of players. 

2020 Win Percentage vs Top 8

Richmond 70.0%
Geelong 60.0%

DFS Projections: Season 2020

TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

RICHMOND

The Tigers conceded an average of 51.4pts in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2), they have conceded an average of 44.5pts from their last 2 finals. 

Richmond averaged +9.0 Inside 50 Differential in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2), the Tigers were -15 last week against Port Adelaide.

The Tigers averaged 6.4 Disposals per Inside 50 in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2), they have averaged 6.1 in this finals series.

GEELONG

Geelong averaged 72.5pts per game in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 1), the Cats have averaged 91.0pts from their last 2 finals. 

The Cats averaged 311.7 Disposals per game in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2), they have averaged 324.2 Disposals from winning games & 284.3 Disposals from losing games in 2020.

Geelong were +10.1 in Contested Possession Differential in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 1), the Cats are averaging +14.0 from 3 finals this year. 

ROUND 18 CBA’S

RICHMOND

Trent Cotchin 87.5%
Dion Prestia 68.8%
Dustin Martin 62.5%
Shane Edwards 50.0%
Jack Graham 18.8%
Shai Bolton 12.5%

GEELONG

Joel Selwood 90.0%
Cam Guthrie 80.0%
Mitch Duncan 75.0%
Brandan Parfitt 40.0%
Patrick Dangerfield 15.0%

LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES

RICHMOND

Toby Nankervis 79pts
Dustin Martin 76
Shai Bolton 72
Daniel Rioli 70
Nick Vlastuin 69

GEELONG

Cam Guthrie 113pts
Mark Blicavs 94
Tom Stewart 91
Esava Ratugolea 89
Mark O’Connor 83

2020 Round 17, Metricon Stadium

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