2021 AFL DFS: Grand Final Melbourne v Western Bulldogs Preview

2021 Grand Final DFS Preview – Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

AFL GRAND FINAL DFS PREVIEW

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs (Optus Stadium – Perth)

Saturday 25th September: 7:15pm (AEST), 5:15 (AWST)

WEATHER

11-27 Mostly sunny

2021 AFL Weather Forecast: Grand Final

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Article by @aflratingsPete

KEY INJURIES

MELBOURNE

Steven May (Hamstring) Available
Joel Smith (Hamstring) Available
Adam Tomlinson (Knee) Season

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Cody Weightman (Concussion protocol) Available
Alex Keath (Hamstring) Available
Laitham Vandermeer (Hamstring) Available
Josh Bruce (Knee) Season

BETTING

Melbourne 1.64 -7.5
Western Bulldogs 2.26

Total Match Points: 155.5

2021 Bet Lab: Grand Final Markets

GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY

There are quite a few significant ceiling type players in the 2021 AFL Grand Final, if both teams play at a high level it could be a brutal contested game.

A look back at both games this year:

Round 11

Western Bulldogs 8.11 59 lost to Melbourne 13.9 87 (Marvel Stadium)

Melbourne stifled the Bulldogs ball movement significantly at Marvel Stadium, the Demons also targeted Tom Liberatore. Jack Macrae recorded a game high 36 Disposals (147pts), Clayton Oliver was the only Melbourne player to record 25 Disposals or more (33 Disposals, 115pts).

Round 19

Melbourne 9.11 65 lost to Western Bulldogs 13.7 85 (MCG)

This game was played in heavy rain early at the MCG, conditions were made for a contested type game even when rain cleared. The Bulldogs jumped the Demons early with scoreboard pressure, the Demons closed within a few points late in the last Qtr until the Bulldogs pulled away to finish the game.

Jack Macrae (138pts) & Clayton Oliver (126pts) recorded an equal game high 38 Disposals.

Key Notes: Adam Treloar & Josh Dunkley did not play in both games.

What to expect in the Grand Final:

Max Gawn should dominate Hit Outs & impact in general play.

Tom Liberatore is likely to be targeted again at stoppages, Angus Brayshaw is likely to be used in an outside negating role as he has done for most of the season.

Josh Dunkley could be used in a cooler role through the midfield.

Melbourne will try to implement Jake Lever as their main intercept defender, be aware the Bulldogs will look to disrupt what has been a strong Melbourne defensive unit this year.

Centre bounce usage is unlikely to change much unless injuries impact the game.

Roster builds:

Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Clayton Oliver & Christian Petracca should be in pure ball winning roles through the midfield, pairing high ceiling midfielders from the same team should be a consideration.

Completing a full blown high ceiling midfield roster will be difficult to pair with Max Gawn, Stefan Martin may see a decent amount of ownership coming in at a cheap salary. Luke Jackson & Tim English are definitely playable, Gawn should be the highest owned while English is likely to be overlooked by many.

Even though this shapes as a close Grand Final, any type of blow out could bring in to play a few fringe forward scoring options which are likely to be mid-low owned.

Half back/intercepting defender types might be overlooked by many in roster construction, especially with so many premium mids available to roster.

DFS Projections: Season 2021

TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

MELBOURNE

The Demons conceded an average of 66.0pts in the H&A season (Rank 1), they have conceded an average of 51.0pts in the Finals Series.

The Demons have recorded a negative Scoring Shot Differential in 2 of 24 games this season.

The Demons recorded a +11.3 Contested Possession Differential in the H&A season, they have averaged +26.0 in the Finals Series.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

The Bulldogs averaged 90.6pts per game in the H&A Season (Rank 2), they have averaged 93.3pts in the Finals Series.

The Bulldogs recorded an average -11.5 Uncontested Mark Differential in the H&A season (Rank 16).

The Bulldogs recorded an average +58.8 Disposal Differential between Rounds 1-11, they have a -14.8 Differential from their last 14 games (-0.3 Differential in the Finals Series).

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