Round 22
Gold Coast v Essendon (GMHBA Stadium)
Sunday 3:20pm (AEST)
WEATHER
8-19 Mostly sunny
2021 AFL Weather Forecast: Round 22
KEY INJURIES
GOLD COAST
Brandon Ellis (Hamstring) OUT
Lachie Weller (Concussion protocol) OUT
Jarrod Witts (Knee) OUT
Oleg Markov (Hamstring) OUT
ESSENDON
Kyle Langford (Hamstring) OUT
Jye Caldwell (Hamstring) OUT
BETTING
Gold Coast 3.55
Essendon 1.30 -20.5
Total Match Points: 157.5
2021 Bet Lab: Round 22 Markets
Article by @aflratingsPete
GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY
The form for Gold Coast has fluctuated in recent weeks, a strong win against Carlton last week could provide some much needed confidence.
Essendon have likely exceeded expectations this year & are highly motivated chasing a position in the final 8, the ball movement under senior coach Ben Rutten has been slick at times this year & given any opportunity through the middle of the ground can enter Inside 50 quite fast.
It certainly isn’t a battle of heavyweights at the ruck position, Zac Smith & Sam Draper have provided volatile scoring this season. Peter Wright is an option to roster ahead of both if you think Essendon can post a reasonable score against Gold Coast.
Darcy Parish has seen a decline in fantasy output in recent weeks, he has averaged just 82.3pts from his last 3 games. His salary remains strong & is likely to go under owned on Sunday.
Zach Merrett is likely the ceiling player that will be targeted by many on Sunday, he has scored 100pts or more in 85.0% of games this season. Expect heavy ownership.
The salary for Touk Miller is extremely high, many will take him on & fade this week for the potential of a bust score. Keep in mind he has scored 100pts or more in 84.2% of games this season, he has scored 120pts or more in a whopping 63.2% of games.
It may be difficult to roster 2 of the 3 ceiling type players, Parish certainly could be avoided by most of the field with plenty landing on a Miller & Merrett midfield combo. But selecting two high salary players will result in thin plays to complete your roster.
Dropping down to Brayden Fiorini from either Miller, Merrett & Parish will be very popular, Fiorini just gets it done through the midfield, he has averaged 117.2pts from his last 6 games. Expect high ownership.
Noah Anderson offers decent value on Sunday, his centre bounce usage has been reasonable in recent weeks.
Matt Rowell is at a very juicy salary, he hasn’t set the world on fire this year but given an opportunity against the Essendon midfield he could surprise with a decent return.
David Swallow could be under owned, Dylan Shiel won’t likely attract that much ownership but has seen an increase in centre bounce usage in recent weeks.
Jake Stringer could be a slate breaker if he can hit the scored board in which should be his midfield/forward role.
Will Snelling may go overlooked, he has been reasonably consistent this year.
Ben Ainsworth & Darcy McPherson are options for a Gold Coast stack.
TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES
GOLD COAST
The Suns have averaged 97.8 Uncontested Marks FOR in the last 4 weeks
The Suns have conceded an average of 27.5 scoring shots in the last 4 weeks (Rank 18)
The Suns have conceded an average of 62.0 Inside 50s in the last 4 weeks (Rank 18)
ESSENDON
The Bombers are averaging 1.68 PPI50 (Points Per Inside 50) this season (Rank Eq.1)
The Bombers have conceded an average of 100.3 Uncontested Marks in the last 4 weeks
The Bombers have a -11.3 average Disposal differential in the last 4 weeks
ROUND 21 CBA’S
GOLD COAST
82.6% Touk Miller
65.2% David Swallow
52.2% Brayden Fiorini, Matt Rowell
ESSENDON
83.9% Zach Merrett, Jake Stringer
77.4% Darcy Parish
54.8% Dylan Shiel
SEASON TOP CBA’S
GOLD COAST
73.1% Touk Miller
49.2% David Swallow
43.7% Noah Anderson
ESSENDON
79.3% Zach Merrett
78.2% Darcy Parish
51.8% Jake Stringer
LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES
GOLD COAST
75 Lachie Weller
68 Jack Bowes
66 Brandon Ellis
65 Hugh Greenwood
ESSENDON
98 Dylan Shiel
95 Jordan Ridley
93 Zach Merrett
93 Darcy Parish
R11 2020: Gold Coast 11.7 73 drew Essendon 11.7 73 (Metricon Stadium)
*16 Min Qtrs
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2021 AFL Weather Forecast: Round 22
2021 Teams: Round 22
