2020 AFL DFS Week 1 Finals Preview: Lions v Tigers

GAME

Brisbane v Richmond (Gabba)

Friday 7:50pm (AEST)

WEATHER

☀ 15-29 Sunny

2020 AFL Weather Forecast: Week 1 Finals

INJURIES

BRISBANE

Harris Andrews (Hamstring) Available
Jarrod Berry (Shoulder) Available 

RICHMOND

Tom Lynch (Hamstring) Out
Shai Bolton (Calf cork) Available
Dion Prestia (Ankle) Available
Josh Caddy (Knee) Questionable
Jake Aarts (Shoulder) Available

BETTING

Brisbane $2.10
Richmond $1.72 -3.5
Total Match Points: 117.5

2020 Bet Lab: Week 1 Finals Markets

Article by @aflratingsPete

GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY

Brisbane head into a home final at the Gabba with a hint of expectation after another solid H&A season under coach Chris Fagan, however standing in their way of advancing to a preliminary final berth are Richmond. 

Looking back to last year the Tigers have owned the Lions and it hasn’t even been close, Richmond will likely let Lachie Neale loose through the midfield & counter attack from defence. 

Neale recorded 26 Disposals & 7 Marks in Round 10 this season against Richmond for 88pts, in 2 games against the Tigers last season (20min Qtrs) Neale averaged a whopping 44.0 Disposals, 5.5 Marks & 142.5pts. Expect the ownership for Lachie Neale to be extremely high, this is a great spot for a ceiling type game. 

If the Richmond defensive is at the top of their game then Brisbane key forwards may struggle to impact, small forwards Lincoln McCarthy & Charlie Cameron each recorded 4 scoring shots against the Tigers in Round 10 this season.

The Tigers have timed their run into the finals quite well overcoming most injuries, Tom Lynch will be held back another week with the Tigers finishing inside the top 4. 

With Dion Pretia returning expect the centre bounce usage to alter from Round 18, Dustin Martin may spend a little more time forward without Lynch. The main 4 at Richmond CBA’s will likely be Martin, Prestia, Edwards & Cotchin. 

If the Lions are well organised in defence then Jack Riewoldt may struggle if a Harris Andrews match-up eventuates, however Riewoldt is a smart operator bringing the ball to ground when necessary & opening up other gateways in the Richmond forward line through his leading patterns. Richmond small forwards are an option without including Riewoldt in roster construction. 

Toby Nankervis will likely be a popular & clear selection at Ruck on Thursday night, opposing most of the field by selecting Stefan Martin or Oscar McInerney is a difficult sell. Martin has not scored more than 51pts in a game this season albeit an injury impacted year & McInenrey has averaged 50.2pts with Stefan Martin in a dual ruck set-up in 2020.

2020 Win Percentage vs Top 8

Brisbane 71.4%
Richmond 71.4%

DFS Projections: Season 2020

TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

BRISBANE

Brisbane conceded an average of 282.6 Disposals in the 2020 H&A season (Rank Eq 2).

Brisbane conceded an average of 1,173.4 team fantasy points in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2).

Brisbane averaged 6.2 Disposals per Inside 50 in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 1). 

RICHMOND

The Tigers conceded an average of 51.2pts in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 3).

The Tigers have an average Inside 50 Differential of +9.0 in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2).

The Tigers averaged 290.1 Disposals per game in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 12), they recorded 295 Disposals against Brisbane in Round 10.

ROUND 18 CBA’S

BRISBANE

Lachie Neale 83.3%
Jarryd Lyons 70.8%
Dayne Zorko 54.2%
Cam Ellis-Yolmen 29.2%
Hugh McCluggage 25.0%
Cam Rayner 20.8%
Mitch Robinson 12.5%
Lincoln McCarthy 4.2%

RICHMOND

Dustin Martin 84.2%
Trent Cotchin 78.9%
Jack Ross 63.2%
Shane Edwards 57.9%
Jack Graham 10.5%
Marlion Pickett 5.3%

LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES

BRISBANE

Jarryd Lyons 97pts
Dayne Zorko 97
Alex Witherden 89
Lachie Neale 88
Hugh McCluggage 88

RICHMOND

Liam Baker 90pts
Shai Bolton 85
Dustin Martin 81
Jayden Short 71
Nick Vlastuin / Jake Aarts 69

2020 Round 10, Metricon Stadium

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