GAME
WEST COAST v ADELAIDE
Optus Stadium
Sunday 4:40pm (AEST)
WEATHER
🌤 9-22 Mostly
INJURIES
WEST COAST
Jamie Cripps (Adductor) Available
ADELAIDE
Eddie Betts (Ribs) Probable
Kyle Hartigan (Ankle) Test
Alex Keath (Ankle) Out
2019 Injury Report: Round 21
BETTING
West Coast $1.22 -27.5
Adelaide $4.50
Total Match Points 169.5
Bet Lab: Round 21 Markets
Article by @aflratingsPete
GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY
Draftstars $200K Live Final
With a top heavy payout structure entrants should be on fully blown YOLO, at the top end prizes range from $50K to 1st place & 5K to 10th place. 25th Place receives $1K.
Maximum entry limit is at 2 line-ups with the majority of entrants owning just 1 line-up.
Ownership may be a little conservative for those owning just 1 line-up, for those that have 2 entries it is a distinct advantage with one of those line-ups likely to find very unique & low owned options.
Of course midfield players will be heavily targeted from both teams, West Coast can run up to 5 deep at centre bounces while Adelaide are currently 4 deep (See below).
The major change for Adelaide is at the Ruck position, Sam Jacobs returns at the expense of Reilly O’Brien which could split ownership for those willing to start with 1 Ruck only.
It is possible many could load up on a dual Ruck combo with Hickey having dual Ruck/Forward status, this would eliminate a volatile forward position.
High end defenders are reasonably priced & could easily hit EV (Expected Value), recency bias may come in to the thinking for many in regards to Rory Laird who posted a season high 134pts last week.
Do you fade Laird? He has scored 100pts or more in just 36.8% of games this season (2018: 70.0%). West Coast have been known for defensive forward roles under coach Adam Simpson.
In Round 10 this year Mark Hutchings went to Rory Sloane early, Sloane scored 51pts in the 1st half which included10 Disposals & 6 Tackles. After Half Time Sloane scored 68pts for a total of 119pts.
West Coast have never hosted Adelaide at Optus Stadium (Opened for AFL at Round 1, 2018), they have played each other twice in the last 2 years with narrow winning margins split at the Adelaide Oval.
2019
Round 10: Adelaide 10.13 73 lost to West Coast 13.7 85 (AO)
2018
Round 15: Adelaide 12.16 88 def. West Coast 12.6 78 (AO)
AFL Fantasy scores in Round 10 this season were quite high at the top & very thin at the bottom (See below for Top Scores from Round 10, 2019).
This game sets up well with both teams highly motivated, West Coast are keen to lock in a Top 2 spot while Adelaide are clinging on to 8th spot.
2019 Win Percentage vs Top 8
West Coast 57.1% (Rank 3)
Adelaide 28.6% (Rank 13)
Article by @aflratingsPete
TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES
WEST COAST
The Eagles are averaging 87.5pts per game this season, they are averaging 95.0 at Optus Stadium including 111.8pts from their last 5 games.
The Eagles are averaging 1.77 PPI50 this season (Rank 2).
By The Numbers: Points Per Inside 50 Round 20
The Eagles are conceding 74.6pts this season (Rank 3), the Eagles have conceded an average of 68.0pts from their last 7 games.
West Coast are averaging 352.8 Disposals per game this season (Rank 16), the Eagles have not recorded 400 Disposals in a game this season.
West Coast are averaging 7.2 Disposals per Inside 50 this season (Rank 9), they are averaging 7.4 Disposals per Inside 50 over the last 4 weeks (Rank 10).
West Coast have a -9.3 Contested Possession Differential this season (Rank 17), that drops to -4.7 since Round 7.
ADELAIDE
The Crows are averaging 82.2pts this season, they are averaging 88.3pts in all travel games which includes their only score over 100pts against Gold Coast in Round 17 (151pts).
Adelaide have averaged 46.0 Inside 50s from their last 2 games (Season Ave: 52.2).
Adelaide have recorded 400 Disposals or more in 3 of their last 4 games, they have averaged 412.5 Disposals over the same period (Season Ave: 394.8, Rank 3).
Adelaide are averaging 7.7 Disposals per Inside 50 this season (Rank 9), they are averaging 7.9 Disposals per Inside 50 over the last 4 weeks (Rank 16).
Adelaide have a +2.3 Contested Possession Differential this season, between Rounds 1-13 the Crows were +5.5 while they are -4.8 from their last 6 games.
AFL Fantasy Team Points: Round 20
ROUND 20 CENTRE BOUNCE ATTENDANCES
WEST COAST
24 – Elliot Yeo
19 – Jack Redden, Luke Shuey
15 – Dom Sheed
10 – Andrew Gaff
ADELAIDE
21 – Rory Sloane, Brad Crouch
18 – Brad Crouch, Bryce Gibbs
3 – Richard Douglas
ROUND 20 KICK-INS
WEST COAST
5 – Shannon Hurn
4 – Lewis Jetta
ADELAIDE
3 – Wayne Milera, Jake Kelly
2 – Rory Laird, Luke Brown
DFS Projections Round 21: Sunday
PLAYER TRENDS
WEST COAST
Andrew Gaff has scored 100pts or more in 76.5% of games this season, he has averaged 104.6pts since the West Coast Round 13 Bye (Season Ave: 110.6pts).
Elliot Yeo has scored 120pts or more in 27.8% of games this season (Second only to Andrew Gaff 29.4%).
Tom Hickey has averaged 86.8pts as solo Ruck this season (4 Games).
ADELAIDE
Brodie Smith has averaged 112.0pts from his last 3 games, he averaged 80.9pts between Rounds 1-17.
Brad Crouch has averaged 109.9pts in all travel games this season (Season Ave: 110.2pts).
Reilly O’Brien has averaged 104.6pts from his last 13 games (Season Ave: 98.3).
LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES
WEST COAST
134 Cam Ellis-Yolmen
119 Rory Sloane
116 Brad Crouch
112 Hugh Greenwood
106 Reilly O’Brien
Key Midfield DNP – Matt Crouch
ADELAIDE
135 Jack Redden
134 Luke Shuey
132 Elliot Yeo
120 Andrew Gaff
110 Dom Sheed
Key Midfield DNP – Nil
Round 10, 2019 Adelaide Oval (Game Start: 4:35pm (AEST)
Article by @aflratingsPete
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