Team motivation in the final round of the H&A season can have a direct influence on fantasy output, what seemingly looks like a straight up regular round of football could be anything but.
Teams in the hunt for a spot in September as well as teams trying to host home finals will of course have high motivation this week, but as Round 23 starts to play out over the weekend scenarios & opportunities start to dry up or even open up based on results.
Again, this is no normal round of football & taking into account certain scenarios can assist in making correct fantasy decisions this week.
Here are a few things to keep in mind for Round 23:
Article by @aflratingsPete
Round 23 Team Motivation
Collingwood v Essendon (MCG)
Collingwood motivation: High
The Magpies are very much alive for a Top 4 spot, a win & a loss by either Richmond or West Coast will see them secure a Top 4 position. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
Essendon motivation: Moderate-Low
The Bombers have finally qualified for finals but are still dealing with injuries, a win against the Magpies could see them jump to 6th but that is unlikely considering GWS play Gold Coast on Saturday night. A win for the Bombers on Friday night will likely see them travel in Week 1 Finals against the Giants, a loss may even see them travel for the same game if the Bulldogs lose on Sunday. There are multiple other possibilities for Essendon, given the health of their playing list Round 23 may not be a high priority. Be cautious for fantasy.
Sydney v St Kilda (SCG)
Sydney motivation: Moderate
The Swans will have a Lance Franklin & possibly Jarrad McVeigh narrative heading into Round 23, finals haven’t been on the agenda for a while. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
St Kilda motivation: Moderate
The Saints are still evolving under interim coach Brett Ratten, there has been no drop off in recent weeks. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
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Nth Melbourne v Melbourne (BA)
Nth Melbourne motivation: Moderate
The Kangaroos were solid last week against Port Adelaide & face a Melbourne team limping to the finish line in poor form. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
Melbourne motivation: Low
The end of the season can’t come quick enough for the Demons, injuries have impacted their season significantly. Be cautious for fantasy.
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Geelong v Carlton (GMHBA)
Geelong motivation: High
The Cats will lock in a home Final & maybe even top spot with a win in Round 23, the Blues have been highly competitive under new coach David Teague which should have all Geelong players as sharp as ever this season. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
Carlton motivation: Moderate
The Blues have a 7-3 record since Teague was installed as coach & have turned from development mode to a highly competitive mode. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
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Gold Coast v GWS Giants (MS)
Gold Coast motivation: Low
It has been another long season for the Suns, they have averaged 336.3 Disposals since Round 15 (Rank 18). Proceed as normal for fantasy.
GWS Giants motivation: High (If Essendon win) Low (If Essendon lose)
The Giants will be virtually locked into 6th spot & a home Final if Essendon lose on Friday night, they have made 6 late changes over the last 5 weeks & will likely prioritise Finals over what looks like a meaningless game. Be cautious for fantasy.
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West Coast v Hawthorn (OS)
West Coast motivation: High
An Eagles loss could see them slip to 5th spot, there are still opportunities available higher on the ladder based on other results. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
Hawthorn motivation: High
A win for the Hawks will see them move into the Top 8 on Saturday night with Sunday results still pending. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
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Western Bulldogs v Adelaide (MARS)
Western Bulldogs motivation: High
A win for the Bulldogs will secure the last spot available in the 2019 Finals series. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
Adelaide motivation: High
The Crows will need a win and likely a decent bump in percentage to qualify for Finals, motivation may alter during the game if the scoreboard is not in their favour. Be cautious for fantasy.
Richmond v Brisbane (MCG)
Richmond motivation: High
The Tigers will need to win (if Collingwood win) as to retain a position in the Top 4, other higher results on the ladder are possible based on previous Geelong & West Coast results. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
Brisbane motivation: High
If the Lions win they will finish in 1st place on the Ladder, only a significant loss could see them slip out of the Top 2. This should be 4 Qtrs of motivation for Brisbane, other (Geelong/West Coast) results might reduce what is required against the Tigers. Proceed as normal for fantasy.
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Port Adelaide v Fremantle (AO)
Port Adelaide motivation: High (If Finals chances are alive) Low (If unable to make Finals)
The last game of the H&A season could prove to be the most volatile, the variance in output for Port Adelaide is wide. Be cautious for fantasy.
Fremantle motivation: Moderate-Low
Can the Dockers provide some type of fight after the removal of coach Ross Lyon this week, players heads could be still spinning from his departure. Be cautious for fantasy.
There are multiple possibilities heading into Round 23, mitigating risk from a fantasy perspective in games where there could be some type of volatile/variance in scoring may be optimal.
Article by @aflratingsPete
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