DFS Preview: Week 2 Finals Cats v Eagles

GAME

Geelong v West Coast 

MCG

Friday 7:50pm (AEST)

WEATHER

🌤 8-18 Partly cloudy

Week 2 Finals Weather Forecast

DFS Projections Week 2 Finals: Cats v Eagles

Tom Hawkins.jpg
Tom Hawkins has failed to kick a Goal in his last 3 games

INJURIES

GEELONG

Mitch Duncan Knee – Out
Gary Rohan Hamstring – Out

WEST COAST

Nil

BETTING

Geelong $1.84 -2.5
West Coast $2.02
Total Match Points: 153.5

Bet Lab: Week 2 Finals Markets

Article by @aflratingsPete

 

GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY

Favouritism has been split for most of the week between these two teams, as a result ownership is likely to be spread out compared to a heavy favourite scenario.

Patrick Dangerfield has averaged 117.3pts in his last 4 games against West Coast, 125.5pts in 2 winning games & 109.0pts in 2 losing games.

Tom Hawkins has failed to kick a Goal in his last 3 games (Ave: 41.7pts), he’s averaged 3.0 Goals in his last 2 games against West Coast (Ave: 83.0pts).

West Coast key forwards will be up against the No.1 defence on Friday night.

If you intend to lock in a century, Andrew Gaff has scored 100pts or more in 81.0% of games this season including his last 10 consecutive games.

West Coast will likely keep a tight window for CBA’s (Centre Bounce Attendances), Geelong were quite spread out for CBA’s last week. Cam Guthrie returns for Geelong which will impact the spread this week.

The provisional suspension of Willie Rioli does impact the quality of small forwards for the Eagles, ownership may trend further towards Jamie Cripps & Liam Ryan.

2019 Win Percentage vs Top 8

Geelong 55.6% (Rank Eq3)
West Coast 55.6% (Rank Eq3)

Article by @aflratingsPete

Elliot Yeo 2
Elliot Yeo recorded a team high 22 Centre Bounces Attendances last week

 

TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

GEELONG

The Cats have conceded 66.5pts per game in 2019 (Rank 1).

The Cats have not conceded 100pts in a game this season, they have conceded fewer than 80pts in in 17 of 23 games.

The Cats are averaging 88.5pts from 23 games this season, they have averaged 81.2pts at the MCG (6 Games).

Geelong have a +2.1 Inside 50 Differential this season, +2.2 at the MCG.

Geelong average 7.1 Disposals per Inside 50 this season, 7.5 at the MCG.

WEST COAST

The Eagles averaged 352.9 Disposals in the 2019 H&A season (Rank 16).

The Eagles averaged 1.73 Points Per Inside 50 in the H&A season (Rank Eq1).

The Eagles averaged 50.0 Inside 50s in the H&A season, they averaged 49.3 at the MCG (3 Games).

West Coast average 7.1 Disposals per Inside 50 this season, 6.7 at the MCG.

West Coast average 94.1pts at Optus Stadium & 79.5pts at all other venues in 2019.

 

WEEK 1 FINALS CENTRE BOUNCE ATTENDANCES

GEELONG

17 Patrick Dangerfield
13 Tim Kelly
9 Joel Selwood
8 Quinton Narkle
4 Sam Menegola, Gary Ablett
2 Brandan Parfitt, Mitch Duncan
1 Tom Atkins

WEST COAST

22 Elliot Yeo
18 Andrew Gaff
17 Luke Shuey
15 Dom Sheed, Jack Redden

Centre Bounce Ruck Sequence: West Coast

Q1
NAITANUI
NAITANUI
NAITANUI
HICKEY
HICKEY
NAITANUI
NAITANUI
NAITANUI
HICKEY

Q2
NAITANUI
NAITANUI
NAITANUI
HICKEY
HICKEY
NAITANUI
NAITANUI
HICKEY

Q2
NAITANUI
NAITANUI
HICKEY
HICKEY
NAITANUI

Q4
NAITANUI
HICKEY
NAITANUI
NAITANUI
HICKEY
HICKEY

 

WEEK 1 FINALS KICK-INS

GEELONG

3 Tom Stewart,  Zach Tuohy
1 Mitch Duncan

WEST COAST

5 Shannon Hurn
2 Lewis Jetta

DFS Projections Week 2 Finals: Cats v Eagles

 

LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES

GEELONG

138 Patrick Dangerfield
130 Mitch Duncan
124 Tom Stewart
110 Rhys Stanley
108 Gary Ablett

WEST COAST

141 Tom Hickey
109 Shannon Hurn
101 Elliot Yeo
91 Andrew Gaff
74 Chris Masten

Round 6, 2019 GMHBA Stadium

Article by @aflratingsPete

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