2020 AFL DFS Week 3 Finals Preview: Lions v Cats

GAME

Brisbane v Geelong (Gabba)

Saturday 7:40pm (AEDT)

WEATHER

🌤 16-29 Partly cloudy

2020 AFL Weather Forecast: Week 3 Finals

Lachie Neale scored 88pts in Round 6 against Geelong at the SCG.

KEY INJURIES

BRISBANE

Noah Answerth (Groin) Test

GEELONG

Jack Steven (Hamstring) Out
Rhys Stanley (Knee) Available

BETTING

Brisbane $1.74 -3.5
Geelong $2.10
Total Match Points: 120.5 

2020 Bet Lab: Week 3 Finals Markets

Article by @aflratingsPete

GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY

Brisbane will host Geelong at the Gabba on Saturday night for a spot in the 2020 Grand Final, the Lions are undefeated at home this year (10-0) while the Cats also enjoy an undefeated record (4-0) at the Gabba.

The Lions are not a disposal heavy team, they averaged 282.9 Disposals in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 16) & recorded 264 Disposals in their Qualifying Final win against Richmond. The Cats are the complete opposite averaging 311.7 Disposals in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 2) & have averaged 323.0 Disposals from their 2 finals. 

The Lions recruited Cam Ellis-Yolmen as a bigger bodied midfielder that can assist Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko & co at stoppages, he comes into the team this week & will likely be present at a few centre bounces. Brisbane coach Chris Fagan may be anticipating attention to head the way of Lachie Neale, Cats midfielder Cam Guthrie will likely get any close checking duties on Neale. 

Lachie Neale & Jarryd Lyons will likely see the highest usage at centre bounces for Brisbane, Joel Selwood & Cam Guthrie will likely be used at a heavy rate for Geelong in at centre bounces. Mitch Duncan was used at 70.8% of CBA’s last week while Patrick Dangerfield was used at just 25.0%, it’s possible those numbers could be similar this week but could alter based on game flow. 

Harris Andrews had the task on Tom Hawkins earlier this season at the SCG, Hawkins finished with 3 Goals (99pts) in a strong Geelong win. Hawkins was held goalless last season (58pts) in Round 22 at the Gabba with Marcus Adams as a main opponent, Hawkins should be highly considered in a Geelong ‘win’ roster build. 

Rhys Stanley has a clear defined ruck role at Geelong, he was assessed for a knee injury late in the game last week but has been given the all clear to play on Saturday night. Oscar McInerney & Stefan Martin will share ruck duties at Brisbane, look for McInerney to be used early at centre bounces.

With so many premium midfield options available in this game ownership will not likely be heavy at the top range of salaries, finding reliable spots to pay down in order to fit premium players in will likely be difficult. 

2020 Win Percentage vs Top 8

Brisbane 75.0%
Geelong 55.6%

DFS Projections: Season 2020

Tom Hawkins scored 99pts against Brisbane in Round 6 at the SCG this season.

TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

BRISBANE

The Lions averaged +7.4 Inside 50 Differential in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 3). 

The Lions averaged 6.2 Disposals per Inside 50 in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 1), they recorded 5.9 Disposals in their Qualifying Final against Richmond. 

The Lions conceded an average of 282.6 Disposals in the 2020 H&A season (Rank Eq 2).

GEELONG

The Cats averaged 72.5pts in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 1). 

The Cats averaged +10.1 Contested Possession Differential in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 1), they were +22 against Collingwood last week. 

The Cats averaged +43.2 Disposal Differential in the 2020 H&A season (Rank 1). 

ROUND 18 CBA’S

BRISBANE

Lachie Neale 85.7%
Jarryd Lyons 71.4%
Dayne Zorko 47.6%
Jarryd Berry 38.1%
Cam Rayner 28.6%
Hugh McCluggage 19.0%
Lincoln McCarthy 9.5%

GEELONG

Cam Guthrie 87.5%
Joel Selwood 79.2%
Mitch Duncan 70.8%
Brandan Parfitt 37.5%
Patrick Dangerfield 25.0%

LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES

BRISBANE

Lachie Neale 98pts
Jarryd Lyons 88
Jarrod Berry 84
Cam Rayner 77
Dayne Zorko 72

GEELONG

Sam Simpson 102pts
Patrick Dangerfield 102
Tom Hawkins 99
Sam Menegola 92
Cam Guthrie 86

2020 Round 6, SCG

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