DFS Preview: Week 3 Finals Tigers v Cats

GAME

Richmond v Geelong (MCG)

Friday 7:50pm (AEST)

WEATHER

🌤 17-25 Partly cloudy

Week 3 Finals Weather Forecast

DFS Projections Week 3 Finals: Tigers v Cats

Tim Kelly 1.jpg
Tim Kelly has averaged 88.0pts from his last 10 games

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KEY RECENT INJURIES

RICHMOND

GEELONG

Mitch Duncan (Knee) Out
Tom Hawkins (Suspended) Out
Gary Rohan (Knee) Test

BETTING

Richmond $1.34 -19.5
Geelong $3.30
Total Match Points: 151.5

Bet Lab: Week 3 Finals Markets

Article by @aflratingsPete

 

GAME & OWNERSHIP THEORY

Geelong have been defeated by 17pts or more only twice this season, the Cats will be without key forward Tom Hawkins due to suspension. Richmond have maintained a very solid defence for the second half of the season without key defender Alex Rance, the Tigers have conceded an average of 63.1pts from their last 10 games.

Predicting a game script may be difficult despite the overwhelming betting market that have the Tigers -19.5 favourites, an early forecast predicted rain on Friday night but that has now turned into a dry & slightly windy forecast.

Richmond may again elect to go head to head in a midfield battle this time against Geelong, but it is the Cats that may determine where the Tiger midfield points will head based on the usage of Cam Guthrie.

Guthrie missed the opening Final against the Magpies, he attended 11 CBA’s (Centre Bounces Attendances) last week against the Eagles, Dion Prestia may be a target for the Cats on Friday night. Prestia is not a total fade, for those multi entering GPP’s keep it in mind when adjusting ownership levels.

Dustin Martin is a difficult match-up for Geelong due to his ability to move forward, the Cats are flexible in defence and are ranked No.1 this season conceding 66.3pts per game in 2019. Dusty was ranked 4th for Richmond CBA’s against Brisbane in the Qualifying Final, his forward play made for a difficult match-up for the Lions & when the game was out of reach there was no need for him to play in the midfield.

With the suspension of Tom Hawkins, expect Esava Ratugolea to predominantly play forward. Mark Blicavs started on a wing mostly last week, he is an option to provide Ruck support for Rhys Stanley.

Many might speculate on Patrick Dangerfield spending more time forward against the Tigers, he was ranked No.1 for Geelong CBA’s against the Eagles in the Semi Final & Magpies in the Qualifying Final. Dangerfield recorded his 2nd career highest score of 162pts against the Tigers in Round 12 this season, in a Geelong win scenario he is likely a requirement for your line-up. Dangerfield averaged 112.6pts in winning games & 94.7pts in losing games in the 2019 H&A season.

DFS Projections Week 3 Finals: Tigers v Cats

2019 Win Percentage vs Top 8

Richmond 60.0% (Rank Eq2)
Geelong 60.0% (Rank Eq2)

Article by @aflratingsPete

Bachar Houli.jpg
Bachar Houli has scored 100pts or more in 60.0% of games this season

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TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

RICHMOND

The Tigers conceded an average of 49.3 Inside 50’s in the 2019 H&A season, they conceded 65 Inside 50s against Brisbane in the Qualifying Final.

The Tigers recorded an average of 6.7 Disposals per Inside 50 in the 2019 H&A season, they recorded 6.2 Disposals per Inside 50 entry against Geelong  in Round 12.

The Tigers averaged -7.8 in Contested Possession per game in the 2019 H&A season (Rank 16).

The Tigers are averaging 374.2 Disposals at the MCG in 2019 (Season Ave: 368.3), they averaged 360.7 Disposals at all other venues.

GEELONG

The Cats conceded an average of 66.5pts per game in the 2019 H&A season (Rank 1), they have conceded an average of 64.5pts in two finals this year.

Geelong averaged 90.2pts in the 2019 H&A season (Rank 2), they have averaged 82.1pts at the MCG & 91.1pts at all other venues.

The Cats averaged +10.8 in Contested Possession per game in the 2019 H&A season (Rank 1), they have averaged +22.0 in two Finals this year.

The Cats are averaging 371.9 Disposals at the MCG in 2019 (Season Ave: 364.7), they averaged 361.8 Disposals at all other venues.

DFS Projections Week 3 Finals: Tigers v Cats

FINALS CENTRE BOUNCE ATTENDANCES

RICHMOND (vs Brisbane)

25 Dion Prestia
20 Shane Edwards
15 Trent Cotchin
13 Dustin Martin
12 Jack Graham
3 Shai Bolton
2 Josh Caddy

GEELONG (vs West Coast)

22 Patrick Dangerfield
19 Joel Selwood
13 Tim Kelly
11 Cameron Guthrie
7 Quinton Narkle
4 Brandan Parfitt
2 Gary Ablett

FINALS KICK-INS

RICHMOND (vs Brisbane)

9 Jayden Short
5 Nick Vlastuin
1 Bachar Houli, Liam Baker

GEELONG (vs West Coast)

5 Tom Stewart
1 Zach Tuohy, Cameron Guthrie

LAST TIME THEY MET TOP SCORES

RICHMOND

106 Dion Prestia
105 Bachar Houli
102 Dustin Martin
79 Patrick Naish
79 Dan Butler

GEELONG

162 Patrick Dangerfield
144 Mitch Duncan
129 Tim Kelly
118 Gary Ablett
105 Tom Stewart

Round 12, MCG 2019

Article by @aflratingsPete

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